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Global Security Brief

Incident Highlights & Future Threats

Welcome to the Global Security Brief, your weekly go-to source for incident highlights, risk assessment, and future threats from around the world. In this newsletter, we bring you timely updates on security incidents worldwide, along with risk analysis and future events to help you stay informed and prepared.

Global Incident Highlights

This week saw a surge in violence across several regions.  

 

Africa

 

  • Democratic Republic of Congo: On April 6, 10 people were killed following a CODECO militia attack in Djugu, Ituri. The incident occurred at Galayi village, Banyali Kilo sector, at around 5 am (local time).
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  • Nigeria: On April 1-2, 18 bandits were killed following a security operation in Wase, Plateau. The incident occurred during a raid in the Zurak community around 11:00 am local time. Additionally, on April 4, 19 people were killed and dozens of houses were destroyed in an armed invasion in Omala, Kogi. The incident occurred in Agojeju-Odo, Ajokpachi Odo, Bagaji, and other communities during local nighttime. The invasion occurred after an attack in Benue state that extended into Kogi.
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  • Sudan: On April 6, 20 people were reportedly killed following an RSF attack on a village near Al Hasahisa, Gezira. The incident occurred at Um Udam.

 

Americas

 

  • Ecuador – Mexico: On April 5, the Mexican President suspended diplomatic relations with the government of Ecuador. The declaration came after Ecuadorian police raided the Mexican Embassy in Quito to detain the former Vice President of Ecuador who was seeking political asylum with Mexico.

 

APAC
 

  • Taiwan: On April 3, at least 13 people died and over 1100 were injured following a 6.4 magnitude earthquake that struck 11 km northeast of Hualien City. The earthquake struck at 08:11 a.m. local time at a depth of 11.8 km. Tsunami warnings were issued. Japan as well issued Tsunami warnings for Miyakojima and Okinawa islands.

 

Europe

 

  • Finland: On April 2, 1 minor was killed, 2 others were injured, and 1 suspect was arrested in a school shooting in Vantaa, Uusimaa Region. The incident started around 9:08 am local time at the Viertola primary school. The suspect was detained in the northern Siltamaki district of Helsinki at 09:58 am local time.

 

Middle East and North Africa

 

  • Iran: On April 4, 3 IRGC operatives were killed in clashes with Jaish al-Adl militants across Sistan and Baluchestan. The clashes began in the early hours local time when militants simultaneously targeted military posts in Rask, Chabahar, and Sarbaz. According to updates, 5 people have been killed and 10 were injured. Another update reports that 11 IRGC operatives were killed, 10 were injured, and 16 militants were killed.
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  • Syria: On April 1, at least 7 people were reportedly killed following a bombing in Damascus. The bombing reportedly originated from an airstrike and hit the Iranian embassy in the Mezzeh area. Sources claim that the bombing was carried out by Israel. Additionally, on April 7, 12 people, including 4 civilians, were killed in armed clashes between two local groups in Al-Sanamayn, Daraa Governorate. The clashes took place in the Al-Joura neighbourhood.
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  • Turkey: On April 2, 27 people died and several others were injured in a fire outbreak in Istanbul. The fire broke out at a nightclub on the bottom floor of a 16-storey building in the Gayrettepe area of Beşiktaş, on Yıldız Posta Street. The origin of the fire remains unknown.

 

Conflict Zones Watch

Israel – Palestinian Territories
Last week, the situation escalated dramatically on April 1 with an Israeli airstrike that resulted in the death of 7 aid workers from World Central Kitchen (WCK), prompting the organization to suspend operations in the region. Subsequent airstrikes in various locations across Gaza, including Deir al-Balah, Rafah, and Nuseirat, have led to numerous fatalities and injuries, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis. 


On April 7, Israel announced a reduction in its military presence in southern Gaza, leaving only one brigade in the area, while emphasizing that a “significant force” would still remain. This move is seen as a tactical adjustment rather than a signal of the conflict nearing its end.
 
Meanwhile, both Israel and Hamas have sent delegations to Cairo for fresh ceasefire negotiations.
 

Key Findings:

 

  • Israeli airstrikes in Gaza: Israeli airstrikes targeting various locations in Gaza, including Deir al-Balah, Rafah, Nuseirat, Al-Mughraqa, and Gaza City, have caused extensive civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. Specific incidents include the bombing of Al-Bashir Mosque and residential homes in Deir al-Balah, resulting in multiple deaths and injuries.
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  • Humanitarian implications: The killing of WCK aid workers has prompted the suspension of aid operations in Gaza, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region. The UN’s decision to suspend night-time aid movements underscores the heightened risks faced by humanitarian organizations and the urgent need for de-escalation to ensure the delivery of essential services to vulnerable populations.
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  • Spillover violence: Violence has spilt over into neighbouring regions, including Lebanon and the West Bank, with reports of airstrikes in Ayta ash Shab and shootings near Megiddo and Nabi Ilyas. These incidents highlight the potential for further escalation and regional destabilization.
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  • Militant activity: The Al-Qassam Brigades claimed responsibility for the anti-personnel bomb attacks that resulted in the deaths of 6 Israeli soldiers in Khan Yunis, signalling an escalation in militant activity and posing a significant security threat to Israeli forces operating in Gaza.
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  • Civilian casualties: The escalating violence has resulted in a significant number of civilian casualties on both sides, including deaths and injuries caused by airstrikes, shootings, and artillery shelling. The indiscriminate targeting of civilian areas raises concerns about violations of international humanitarian law and the protection of civilian lives during armed conflict.

Myanmar

 

The period between April 1 and 7, 2024, saw the conflict intensifying with both sides employing increasingly sophisticated tactics, including the use of drones and explosives and with rebels gaining ground from government forces.

 

On April 6, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) captured the junta base “Thing Ninaung Military Strategic Base Camp” in Myawaddy, Kayin.

 

The situation keeps presenting grave risks to civilian populations, exacerbates humanitarian concerns, and threatens to further destabilise the region.

 

 

Key Findings:

 

 

  • Civilian Casualties: Multiple incidents of military airstrikes and clashes have resulted in civilian deaths and injuries across various regions, including Homalin, Hpapun, Bhamo, Mabein, and Mindat, among others. Reports indicate indiscriminate targeting of civilian areas, such as monasteries and villages, heightening the risk to non-combatants.

  • Security Forces Losses: Pyusawhti soldiers, junta troops, and police officers have sustained significant casualties in attacks orchestrated by the People’s Defense Force (PDF) and resistance groups. Attacks involving drones, landmines, and ambushes have proven effective in neutralising military personnel, indicating a strategic shift in insurgent tactics. To cope with the high number of losses, Myanmar’s military is allegedly forcibly conscripting Rohingya Muslims to fight against rebel groups such as the Arakan Army.

  • PDF Activity: The PDF has demonstrated operational capability and coordination, executing coordinated attacks on military installations, convoys, and personnel in various locations, including Monywa, Yesagyo, and Tanintharyi. Their ability to engage security forces in direct combat and inflict casualties underscores their growing influence and organisational capacity.

  • Escalation Dynamics: Retaliatory attacks and countermeasures by both sides have contributed to a cycle of escalating violence, with incidents reported almost daily. The use of increasingly lethal weaponry, such as drones and explosives, suggests a willingness to escalate hostilities and underscores the potential for further bloodshed

Russia – Ukraine 

 

The conflict in Ukraine continued the trend of shelling, airstrikes, and drone attacks reported across the eastern and southern regions. Civilian casualties are mounting due to the indiscriminate use of force by both sides, with attacks increasingly targeting civilian infrastructure. Particularly concerning are the recent strikes near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, raising the spectre of a catastrophic radiological event. 

 

Key Findings:

 

  • Potential nuclear disaster: The ongoing shelling and attacks on civilian infrastructure pose a significant risk of further civilian casualties.On April 5, 2 people were killed and 6 injured following a UAV attack near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. According to Russian sources, the initial strike that occurred at 4:00 a.m. Moscow time was carried out by Ukrainian forces. However, according to the Ukrainian Governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ivan Fedorov, and the national public broadcaster, Russian forces carried out the strike. The fighting near the nuclear power plant is raising serious concerns of a potential nuclear disaster. The IAEA confirmed physical damage from the drone attack but stated that nuclear safety was not compromised. Despite no serious damage reported by the plant’s administration, concerns persist regarding the integrity of the reactor’s containment system.
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  • Targeting within Russian territory: On April 1, a Ukrainian missile attack reportedly injured 9 people in Belgorod, a major city near the Ukrainian border. This incident, along with subsequent reports of a Ukrainian airstrike at the Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast on April 5, suggests that Ukraine may be aiming to disrupt Russian logistics and supply lines within Russia and potentially increase public pressure on the Russian government.

Sudan

 

 

The recent events in Sudan indicate a significant escalation in violence and military activities across various regions. Starting from suspected airstrikes in Khartoum, which resulted in multiple casualties, to drone strikes targeting specific locations such as the Al-Baraa Bin Malik Brigade in Atbara, River Nile, the situation has rapidly deteriorated. This escalation is further evidenced by the imposition of curfews in Kassala State and River Nile State, indicating heightened security concerns.

 

 

Additionally, clashes between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied tribal militia in Al-Fashir, North Darfur, have resulted in civilian casualties and displacement. The mobilization of Sudan Liberation Movement Minni Minawi (SLM-MM) faction against RSF troops and the Sudanese Armed Forces’ (SAF) territorial gains in Gezira further exacerbate the conflict dynamics. The series of airstrikes in Darfur regions and the RSF attack on a village near Al Hasahisa, Gezira, underscore the widespread violence and instability gripping the country.

 

 

Key Findings:

 

 

  • Airstrikes and Drone Strikes: Suspected airstrikes in Khartoum and drone strikes in Atbara signify an escalation of military operations, resulting in casualties and damage to infrastructure.
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  • Imposition of Curfews: The amendment of curfew times in Kassala State and the imposition of curfews in River Nile State suggest heightened security measures to control movement and mitigate risks of further violence.
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  • Clashes in Al-Fashir: RSF and allied tribal militia clashes in Al-Fashir, North Darfur, have led to civilian casualties and displacement, indicating intensified conflict in Darfur regions.
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  • Militarization and Mobilization: Reports of SLM-MM faction mobilization against RSF troops and SAF advances in Gezira demonstrate escalating tensions and the potential for broader conflict.
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  • Airstrikes in Darfur: SAF airstrikes in Nyala, South Darfur, and in Mellit and Al-Zarq, North Darfur, highlight the widespread nature of military operations and the vulnerability of civilian populations to aerial attacks.
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  • RSF Attacks: The RSF attack on a village near Al Hasahisa, Gezira, resulting in civilian casualties, underscores the volatile security situation and the risk of further violence against civilian populations.
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The week ahead

The following is a roundup of upcoming protests scheduled to take place around the world during the week of April 8 – April 14, 2024

April 8

 

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  • India: SKM to hold a protest in Chandigarh.
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  • Netherlands: Pro-Palestine manifestation to be held in The Hague, South Holland.
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  • Ireland: Pro-Palestine protests to be staged across the country.
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  • Germany: Pro-Palestine protest to be held in Freiburg im Breisgau, Baden-Württemberg.
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  • Netherlands: Pro-Palestine demonstration and dinner to be held in Amsterdam.
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  • United Kingdom: Protest against UAV manufacturing to be held in Shenstone, England.
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  • South Africa: Pro-Palestine protests to be held in Johannesburg, Gauteng.

 

 

April 9

 

  • Greece: EEEKE air traffic controllers to stage nationwide 4-hour strike action.
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  • Ireland: Pro-Palestine protests to be staged across the country.
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  • Spain: Demonstration against Article 41 of the Workers’ Statute to be held in Barcelona, Catalonia.
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  • United Kingdom: Care staff strike to be held in Renfrewshire, Scotland.

 

 

April 10

 

  • Argentina: University professors to hold strike nationwide.
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  • Belgium: Protest against New Pact on Migration and Asylum agreement to be held in Brussels.
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  • Spain: 
  • – Demonstration against New Pact on Migration and Asylum agreement to be held in Valencia.
  • – Social security-related demonstration to be held in Barcelona, Catalonia.
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  • United Kingdom: 
  • – Care staff strike to be held in West Dunbartonshire, Scotland.
  • Demonstration in support of Julian Assange to be held in London, England.
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  • United States: Pro-Palestine demonstration expected to take place in Toledo, Ohio.

 

 

April 11 

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  • Italy: Private workers to stage strike action nationwide.
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  • Togo: Opposition parties to hold protests over delay in legislative elections.
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  • United Kingdom: Hospital staff to hold strikes in Leicester, England. 
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April 12

 

  • Germany: Anti right-wing demonstration expected to take place in Buxtehude, Lower Saxony.
 

April 13

 

  • France:
  • – Protest against motorcycle technical inspections to be held in Paris.
  • – Pro-Palestine protest to be held in Le Havre, Normandy.
  • – Pro-Palestine protest to be held in Orléans, Centre-Val de Loire.
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  • Germany: 
  • – Anti-right wing demonstration expected to take place in Karlsruhe-Neureut, Baden-Württemberg.
  • Anti-right wing demonstration expected to take place in Munich, Bavaria.
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  • Switzerland: Trans-rights and anti-right-wing demonstration to be held in Geneva.
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  • United States: 
  • – Pro-Palestine protest to be held in Salem, Oregon.
  • Pro-Palestine rally to be held in Brunswick, Georgia.

 

 

April 14

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  • Denmark: Pro-Palestine demonstration expected to take place in Copenhagen.
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  • Ireland: Pro-Palestine protest to be staged at Shannon Airport (SNN), County Clare.
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  • Spain: ‘Fridays for future’ protest to be held in Seville, Andalusia.
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  • Switzerland: Climate activists to stage demonstration in Opfikon, Zürich.
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