Close

The Failure of Peace Talks Between Colombia and the ELN

Overview of the Peace Talks Collapse

 

On January 17, 2025, Colombian President Gustavo Petro officially suspended peace negotiations with the National Liberation Army (ELN) following a violent escalation of hostilities in the Catatumbo region, Norte de Santander. The decision came in response to a series of deadly attacks, which resulted in over 100 fatalities and the displacement of more than 32,000 people. The Colombian government accused the ELN of committing war crimes, including targeted killings of civilians and former FARC combatants who had signed the 2016 peace agreement. In retaliation, President Petro declared a state of internal unrest and economic emergency, deploying over 5,000 troops to the region to restore order.

 

This development marks a significant setback for the government’s “Total Peace” policy, casting doubt on the viability of future negotiations with armed groups. The ELN, meanwhile, remains engaged in territorial disputes with FARC dissidents, fighting for control over key drug trafficking routes, further complicating the security landscape.

 

Territorial Disputes and Power Struggles

 

The collapse of the peace talks coincides with a violent territorial dispute between the ELN and dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Both groups have engaged in intense clashes in the Catatumbo region, one of Colombia’s most strategic areas for cocaine production and trafficking. The ELN, which had previously coexisted with some FARC dissident factions, launched a major offensive aimed at seizing control of illicit economies.

 

The Norte de Santander governor’s office and the Colombian human rights ombudsman reported that the violence resulted in at least 80 confirmed deaths, though local sources suggest the toll could be significantly higher. The tactical objective of the ELN appears to be consolidating control over the region, which serves as a critical corridor for drug exports into Venezuela and beyond. This offensive has led to widespread displacement, with entire communities forced to flee to Antioquia and Barrancabermeja.

 

Weak Ceasefire Agreements and Breakdown of Trust

 

The failure of the peace talks underscores the inherent weaknesses in the ceasefire agreements negotiated between the ELN and the Colombian government. Despite ongoing negotiations, violence never fully ceased, with the ELN exploiting the truce to expand its territorial influence and strengthen its ranks. Reports indicate that the guerrilla group has increased its presence from 149 to 232 municipalities, a 56% expansion, raising concerns that the peace process had inadvertently allowed them to regroup and rearm.

 

The Colombian government repeatedly denounced the ELN’s lack of commitment to the peace process, particularly after the group targeted former FARC combatants, violating the conditions of dialogue. President Petro, who initially pursued a policy of engagement, abruptly shifted strategy, accusing the ELN of war crimes and ordering military action.

 

Expansion of ELN’s Influence and Military Capabilities

 

Intelligence reports indicate that the ELN has reinforced its military capabilities, particularly along the Venezuelan border. The presence of at least 700 ELN fighters in Catatumbo, coupled with their coordination with other fronts in Arauca, La Guajira, and Norte de Santander, suggests a high degree of operational sophistication. The ELN has also reportedly strengthened its alliances with dissident FARC factions in Antioquia, using coordinated attacks against the Clan del Golfo, a powerful paramilitary group.

 

ELN-Related incidents in January 2025

 

The expansion of the ELN’s influence is partially attributed to its growing financial resources, derived from drug trafficking, extortion, and illegal mining. The recent clashes in Catatumbo were largely driven by economic incentives, as both the ELN and FARC dissidents seek to control 52,000 hectares of coca plantations in Norte de Santander.

 

Government Response and Military Offensive

 

In response to the ELN’s aggression, President Petro declared a state of emergency, authorizing an immediate military intervention in the conflict zones. Over 5,000 troops were deployed to Norte de Santander, with additional reinforcements arriving in strategic areas such as Tibu, El Tarra, and Teorama. The Colombian Air Force also conducted targeted strikes on suspected guerrilla hideouts.

 

Despite the military response, the ELN has proven resilient, adapting to asymmetric warfare tactics such as ambushes, IED attacks, and targeted assassinations. The recent attack on a military patrol in Tadó, Chocó, which resulted in one soldier killed and three others wounded, illustrates the ELN’s ability to strike government forces beyond Catatumbo.

 

The suspension of peace talks has drastically altered the government’s approach, signaling a return to full-scale counterinsurgency operations rather than diplomatic engagement. However, analysts warn that a purely military strategy is unlikely to achieve long-term stability, as the ELN has historically demonstrated a high level of adaptability and decentralized command structures.

 

Geopolitical Context and the Role of Venezuela

 

The conflict in Catatumbo has international implications, particularly given the ELN’s cross-border presence in Venezuela. Colombian security forces estimate that the group operates training camps and logistical hubs in Zulia and Táchira states, using these safe havens to evade military offensives.

 

The Venezuelan government has denied allegations of supporting the ELN, but intelligence sources suggest a tacit agreement exists between the guerrillas and factions of the Venezuelan security apparatus. This complicates Colombian counterinsurgency efforts, as any cross-border pursuit of ELN fighters could lead to diplomatic tensions between Bogotá and Caracas.

 

Implications for Colombia’s Security Landscape

 

1. Humanitarian Crisis in Catatumbo

 • Over 32,000 people displaced, with thousands seeking refuge in neighboring departments.

• Entire communities in Tibu, El Tarra, and Teorama abandoned due to fear of reprisals.

Food shortages and supply chain disruptions as businesses and transportation networks shut down.

 

2. Increased Instability and Militarization

• The government’s shift from negotiations to military intervention signals a prolonged conflict.

• The ELN’s continued engagement in asymmetric warfare could lead to further targeted killings and bombings.

• Civilian casualties are expected to rise, as urban areas in Norte de Santander become battlegrounds.

 

3. Deteriorating Prospects for “Total Peace” Policy

• The failure of negotiations weakens public trust in the government’s ability to end the conflict through diplomacy.

• Other armed groups, such as the Clan del Golfo and FARC dissidents, may be less inclined to negotiate if they perceive peace talks as futile.

• President Petro faces growing political opposition, as critics argue that the peace talks only emboldened the ELN.

 

4. Potential for a Multi-Front Conflict

• The ELN is simultaneously fighting the government, FARC dissidents, and paramilitary groups, creating a highly unstable security environment.

• The collapse of the peace talks increases the risk of spillover violence into urban centers, including Bogotá and Medellín.

 

Conclusion

 

The failure of peace talks between the Colombian government and the ELN represents a turning point in the country’s security landscape. The ELN’s aggressive territorial expansion, combined with its strategic alliances and financial resources, has positioned it as the most powerful insurgent group in Colombia. Meanwhile, the government’s militarized response signals a return to open conflict, potentially leading to years of protracted violence.

President Petro’s decision to suspend peace talks reflects the difficulties of negotiating with fragmented insurgent groups that continue to prioritize territorial expansion and illicit economies over political settlements. While military operations may contain the immediate threat, long-term stability will require a combination of security measures, intelligence-driven counterinsurgency, and political solutions.

 

Assessment

 

Short-term: Increased violence in Catatumbo, with potential ELN retaliatory attacks across Colombia.

Medium-term: Higher military expenditures, rising civilian displacement, and further territorial disputes.

Long-term: The failure of peace talks undermines Petro’s broader “Total Peace” initiative, forcing a policy reassessment on counterinsurgency strategy.

REQUEST A DEMO

Do you want to see our platform in action? Book a demo now!